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As evidenced by the recent spree of violence culminated by fairly sophisticated operations targeting two supposedly highly secured facilities, and periodic coordinated attacks across a wide geographic space, Al Qaeda retains the ability to wreak havoc on a wide scale. That said, AQI remains a fringe group. A significant proportion of their violence has targeted Iraq’s Sunni Arab populace. AQI and affiliates spent years literally killing entire families and hanging them from chandeliers. I don’t care how politically and economically marginalized civilians in Anbar, Ninewa, Diyala, Salahaddin and Kirkuk are, I don’t see them flocking en masse to AQI, or looking at the group as their path to redemption. I would be more worried about the capacity for nationalist groups like JRTN to cultivate that kind of broad support if relations between Baghdad and the provinces I just mentioned sour further.
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